- The technical assistance for Ukraine might be too little
- In the war with Russia, Ukraine needs more troops: a million or two
- Experts: nobody has an advantage at the front
The technical assistance for Ukraine might be too little
According to retired Lieutenant-Colonel Leo Kunnas, if Ukraine wants to win, the number of troops will have to be increased to 1.5-2 million. He made this statement on ETV's Sunday program "Ukraine Stuudio" when he commented on the new US military aid package for Kyiv and some other initiatives to provide Ukraine with weapons and ammunition.
According to the Estonian reservist, even with all the promised aid, Ukraine would not yet be able to launch a full-scale counter-offensive[1].
"If we take into account all the aid that will reach Kyiv in the summer and autumn: the US aid, the Czech initiative to provide Ukraine with 800 000 artillery shells, the initiative to provide Ukraine with F16 fighter jets, if all the pledges are fulfilled, they will be able to maintain a stable front until the summer or autumn next year. However, these forces and resources will be insufficient for a large-scale operational counter-offensive, let alone a strategic one aimed at regaining the majority of the occupied territories", Mr Kunnas pointed out.
In the war with Russia, Ukraine needs more troops: a million or two
In his view, a different approach to mobilization could help Ukraine. Last year, Kyiv had hoped to have a million troops but only managed to mobilize between 700,000 and 800,000, the military official explained.
"To win the war, Ukraine needs to build up its army to at least one and a half million soldiers. Two million would be even better, as this would allow regular rotation of units on the front line and create the necessary reserve for the offensive," the retired colonel said. However, he said, Kiev is unlikely to realize this this summer.
"This calls for a rethink of the whole current approach, both in terms of personnel and training - not only to mobilize domestically but also to try to make agreements with partners to hand over Ukrainians on their territory. These changes will likely take place gradually over the next year or two. Some of the processes are very inert and do not move very fast," he pointed out. - Ukraine had high hopes, and it worked well in 2022 because they had a number of reservists who fought in the 2014 Donbas war. Now, they are all at the front, some of them wounded or dead. Mobilisation now needs a completely new approach", stressed Mr Kunnas.
Experts: nobody has an advantage at the front
L. Kunnas said that nobody has an advantage on the front at the moment and that the Ukrainians are doing relatively well, given the lack of ammunition.
He explained that the main fighting these days is taking place in two directions: in the village of Ocheretin, where the Russians broke through the Ukrainian defenses, and near the town of Chasov Yar.
"In the direction of Ocheretin, the Russians broke through at the end of April/beginning of May, about 10 kilometers inland and seven to eight kilometers wide, which means that in the last week and a half, they have occupied about 80 kilometers of territory. Fighting continues near the town of Chasov Yar. The distance between Chasov Yar and the suburbs of Bahamut is about 10 km. If we remember that Bahmut fell last May, we can see how long it took the Russians to reach the next town," he stressed.
According to Kunnas, none of these cities are of strategic or operational importance, and the really important cities in the Donetsk region are Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
"In 2022, Russian troops were already within 10 kilometres of these towns, and now they are about 30 kilometres away. From Ocheretin to the border of Donetsk region is 40 km to the west and 100 km to the north. Virtually all the fighting over the last year and a half has taken place in an area that represents 0.2% of the whole of Ukraine, which has an area of 603 00 square kilometers. In this case, 1% is 3600 square kilometres and 0.1% is 630 square kilometres. This comparison gives a better understanding of the difference between 80 and 10 kilometers," the military officer explained.
In his opinion, this shows that at the current stage, neither side has an advantage and that there is nothing new on the Eastern Front. Nor is there a major Russian offensive underway at the moment.
"Who is attacking? We can talk about clashes between small units, no bigger than a company or a platoon. When the Russians tried to attack in early April with a full battalion reinforced with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, they immediately froze. This shows that neither side has been able to deploy larger forces for a long time", he concluded.
