Aurora forecast · 2026-10-16

Northern lights tonight in Alberta: unlikely

Unlikely tonight. Kp forecast tonight up to 1.7; the northernmost city here needs 3.2.

CityTonightKp neededCloudsDarkMoon
Calgary, AlbertaUnlikely4.478 %7:43 PM–7:02 AM33 %
Edmonton, AlbertaUnlikely3.269 %7:37 PM–7:04 AM33 %
Planetary Kp index: last two days and NOAA's 3-day forecast
123
ObservedForecast

Where to look in Alberta

This far north the aurora is common on clear dark nights even when activity is low; during storms it fills the sky overhead. The best hours are usually around local midnight; it is too light from late spring to late summer.

A bright moon and haze both wash out a faint display; check the hourly cloud cover above and look again later in the evening, when NOAA's short-term OVATION model gives a better picture of the next hour.

FAQ

Northern lights in Alberta

Can I see the northern lights in Alberta tonight?

Unlikely: unlikely tonight. Edmonton needs about Kp 3.2; the forecast for its dark hours tonight is up to Kp 1.7, with 69 % cloud cover on average.

What Kp is needed to see the aurora in Alberta?

Calgary: about Kp 4.4 (geomagnetic latitude 57.5°); Edmonton: about Kp 3.2 (geomagnetic latitude 60.0°).

What is the best time to see the aurora?

Usually between about 10 PM and 2 AM local time, when your part of the Earth faces the night-side of the auroral oval – but during a strong storm it can appear as soon as it is dark. Give your eyes 15–20 minutes away from screens and lights.

Why can my phone see the aurora when I can't?

A phone camera's long exposure collects far more light than the eye and sees color better in the dark. At lower latitudes a faint aurora often looks grey or white to the eye and green or pink on a 3-second phone shot – try night mode pointed north.

How accurate is the forecast?

Kp forecasts a day or more ahead come from observations of the Sun and are uncertain by a step or two; the timing of a storm's arrival can be off by many hours. The OVATION model is good for the next 30–90 minutes. Check the page again in the evening.

More

Nearby

Sources: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (planetary Kp index and 3-day forecast, OVATION aurora model, G-scale outlook), Open-Meteo hourly cloud cover; sun and moon computed by 77.today. The aurora is notoriously hard to forecast beyond an hour or two – treat this as a guide.

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