Aurora forecast · 2026-10-16

Northern lights tonight in Fairbanks, Alaska: clouded out

Activity is high enough, but clouds will likely block it. Fairbanks needs about Kp 0.4; tonight's forecast reaches Kp 1.7, cloud cover 92 %. Dark from 7:28 PM to 7:48 AM, moon 33 % lit.

Hour by hour

Tonight in Fairbanks

Local timeCloud coverKp forecastAurora reaches the horizon?
8:00 PM100 %1.7Yes, but cloudy
9:00 PM95 %1.7Yes, but cloudy
10:00 PM93 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
11:00 PM95 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
12:00 AM100 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
1:00 AM84 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
2:00 AM67 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
3:00 AM71 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
4:00 AM100 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
5:00 AM100 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
6:00 AM100 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
7:00 AM100 %1.3Yes, but cloudy
Planetary Kp index: last two days and NOAA's 3-day forecast
123
ObservedForecast

Where to look in Fairbanks

This far north the aurora is common on clear dark nights even when activity is low; during storms it fills the sky overhead. The best hours are usually around local midnight; it is too light from late spring to late summer.

A bright moon and haze both wash out a faint display; check the hourly cloud cover above and look again later in the evening, when NOAA's short-term OVATION model gives a better picture of the next hour.

FAQ

Northern lights in Fairbanks

Can I see the northern lights in Fairbanks, Alaska tonight?

Clouded out: activity is high enough, but clouds will likely block it. Fairbanks needs about Kp 0.4; the forecast for its dark hours tonight is up to Kp 1.7, with 92 % cloud cover on average.

What Kp is needed to see the aurora in Fairbanks, Alaska?

Fairbanks: about Kp 0.4 (geomagnetic latitude 65.7°).

What is the best time to see the aurora?

Usually between about 10 PM and 2 AM local time, when your part of the Earth faces the night-side of the auroral oval – but during a strong storm it can appear as soon as it is dark. Give your eyes 15–20 minutes away from screens and lights.

Why can my phone see the aurora when I can't?

A phone camera's long exposure collects far more light than the eye and sees color better in the dark. At lower latitudes a faint aurora often looks grey or white to the eye and green or pink on a 3-second phone shot – try night mode pointed north.

How accurate is the forecast?

Kp forecasts a day or more ahead come from observations of the Sun and are uncertain by a step or two; the timing of a storm's arrival can be off by many hours. The OVATION model is good for the next 30–90 minutes. Check the page again in the evening.

More

Nearby

Sources: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (planetary Kp index and 3-day forecast, OVATION aurora model, G-scale outlook), Open-Meteo hourly cloud cover; sun and moon computed by 77.today. The aurora is notoriously hard to forecast beyond an hour or two – treat this as a guide.

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