Northern lights tonight in North Dakota: unlikely
Unlikely tonight. Kp forecast tonight up to 1.7; the northernmost city here needs 5.6.
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| City | Tonight | Kp needed | Clouds | Dark | Moon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bismarck, North Dakota | Unlikely | 5.8 | 0 % | 7:56 PM–7:03 AM | 33 % |
| Fargo, North Dakota | Unlikely | 5.6 | 16 % | 7:40 PM–6:47 AM | 33 % |
Where to look in North Dakota
At this latitude the aurora appears low on the northern horizon during geomagnetic storms (Kp 6 or more), often as a green or reddish glow rather than dancing curtains overhead. Drive away from the city lights to a place with an open view to the north – a lake shore, a field or a hilltop – and use a phone camera in night mode, which picks up color the eye misses.
A bright moon and haze both wash out a faint display; check the hourly cloud cover above and look again later in the evening, when NOAA's short-term OVATION model gives a better picture of the next hour.
Northern lights in North Dakota
Can I see the northern lights in North Dakota tonight?
Unlikely: unlikely tonight. Fargo needs about Kp 5.6; the forecast for its dark hours tonight is up to Kp 1.7, with 16 % cloud cover on average.
What Kp is needed to see the aurora in North Dakota?
Bismarck: about Kp 5.8 (geomagnetic latitude 54.7°); Fargo: about Kp 5.6 (geomagnetic latitude 55.1°).
What is the best time to see the aurora?
Usually between about 10 PM and 2 AM local time, when your part of the Earth faces the night-side of the auroral oval – but during a strong storm it can appear as soon as it is dark. Give your eyes 15–20 minutes away from screens and lights.
Why can my phone see the aurora when I can't?
A phone camera's long exposure collects far more light than the eye and sees color better in the dark. At lower latitudes a faint aurora often looks grey or white to the eye and green or pink on a 3-second phone shot – try night mode pointed north.
How accurate is the forecast?
Kp forecasts a day or more ahead come from observations of the Sun and are uncertain by a step or two; the timing of a storm's arrival can be off by many hours. The OVATION model is good for the next 30–90 minutes. Check the page again in the evening.
Nearby
Sources: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (planetary Kp index and 3-day forecast, OVATION aurora model, G-scale outlook), Open-Meteo hourly cloud cover; sun and moon computed by 77.today. The aurora is notoriously hard to forecast beyond an hour or two – treat this as a guide.