Statistical projection · from every bulletin since 2003

Visa Bulletin predictions for November 2026: which dates are likely to move

For the November 2026 bulletin, 23 of 60 lines are more likely than not to advance and 0 carry a retrogression risk. Tested on the last 36 bulletins, this method called the direction right 58 % of the time.

Likely to advance23of 60 lines

Retrogression risk0lines

Method hit rate58 %last 36 bulletins

Expected releasemid-OctNovember 2026 bulletin

What the State Department itself has said lately

Availability of family-sponsored and employment-based visas for FY 2027
With the availability of FY 2027 immigrant visa numbers, dates for filing and final action dates have advanced across various immigrant visa categories. However, some employment-based visa categories for “Rest of World” countries have retrogressed, and these retrogressions are necessary to keep visa issuances within FY 2027 quarterly and annual limits. This situation is being continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletin for October 2026

Extension of the employment fourth religious workers (SR) category
H.R. 6500, signed on September 2, 2026, extends the Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR) category through December 11, 2026. The SR category is subject to the same dates for filing and final action dates as the other Employment Fourth Preference categories per applicable foreign state of chargeability.
U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletin for October 2026

Availability of family-sponsored and employment-based visas
Immigrant visa issuance rates for aliens from certain countries have decreased in light of various actions the administration has taken to protect national security and public safety, and to otherwise advance the interests of the United States (e.g. Presidential Proclamation 10949, Presidential Proclamation 10998, Immigrant Visa Processing Updates). Consequently, to make visas available in accordance with sections 201-203 of the INA to sufficient prospective immigrants from other countries to use immigrant visa numbers that are available in FY 2026, dates for filing and final action dates have been advanced across various immigrant visa categories throughout recent months. Note that as additional immigrant visa demand materializes, or administration actions are amended, retrogression may be necessary in the upcoming months to keep issuances within annual limits. Visa categories may become “Unavailable” prior to the end of the fiscal year if annual limits, category limits, or pro-rated per-country limits are reached. This situation is being continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletin for September 2026

Final action dates

Employment-based outlook for November 2026

Employment	Now (October)	November outlook	Moved in November before	Typical step	Method hit rate
EB-1 Rest of world	Current	Likely no change	2 % up	–	100 %
EB-1 China	Jul 1, 2023	Likely no change	22 % up	–	64 %
EB-1 India	Feb 1, 2023	Likely no change	11 % up	–	67 %
EB-1 Mexico	Current	Likely no change	2 % up	–	100 %
EB-1 Philippines	Current	Likely no change	2 % up	–	100 %
EB-2 Rest of world	Jan 1, 2025	Likely no change	5 % up	–	53 %
EB-2 China	Oct 1, 2021	Likely no change	46 % up	–	56 %
EB-2 India	Nov 1, 2013	Likely no change	45 % up · 5 % back	–	47 %
EB-2 Mexico	Jan 1, 2025	Likely no change	5 % up	–	53 %
EB-2 Philippines	Jan 1, 2025	Likely no change	5 % up	–	53 %
EB-3 Rest of world	May 15, 2024	Likely no change	35 % up	–	50 %
EB-3 China	Jan 8, 2022	Likely to advance	63 % up · 5 % back	+26 d	56 %
EB-3 India	Jan 1, 2014	Likely no change	37 % up · 5 % back	–	56 %
EB-3 Mexico	May 15, 2024	Likely no change	37 % up	–	50 %
EB-3 Philippines	Aug 15, 2023	Likely no change	33 % up	–	44 %
EB-3 Other Workers Rest of world	Jan 1, 2022	Likely no change	43 % up	–	42 %
EB-3 Other Workers China	Oct 1, 2019	Likely to advance	55 % up	+56 d	72 %
EB-3 Other Workers India	Jan 1, 2014	Likely no change	39 % up · 5 % back	–	58 %
EB-3 Other Workers Mexico	Jan 1, 2022	Likely no change	43 % up	–	47 %
EB-3 Other Workers Philippines	Jan 1, 2022	Likely no change	42 % up	–	64 %
EB-4 Rest of world	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	59 %
EB-4 China	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	59 %
EB-4 India	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	59 %
EB-4 Mexico	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	36 % up	–	55 %
EB-4 Philippines	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	59 %
EB-4 Religious Workers Rest of world	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	50 %
EB-4 Religious Workers China	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	50 %
EB-4 Religious Workers India	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	50 %
EB-4 Religious Workers Mexico	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	31 % up	–	50 %
EB-4 Religious Workers Philippines	Dec 15, 2022	Likely no change	25 % up	–	50 %
EB-5 Unreserved Rest of world	Current	Likely no change	0 % up	–	100 %
EB-5 Unreserved China	Dec 1, 2016	Likely no change	29 % up	–	69 %
EB-5 Unreserved India	Dec 1, 2023	Likely no change	11 % up	–	75 %
EB-5 Unreserved Mexico	Current	Likely no change	0 % up	–	100 %
EB-5 Unreserved Philippines	Current	Likely no change	0 % up	–	100 %

Final action dates

Family-sponsored outlook for November 2026

Family	Now (October)	November outlook	Moved in November before	Typical step	Method hit rate
F1 Rest of world	Jan 22, 2020	Likely to advance	65 % up · 5 % back	+3.2 mo	31 %
F1 China	Jan 22, 2020	Likely to advance	66 % up	+3.2 mo	39 %
F1 India	Jan 22, 2020	Likely to advance	67 % up	+3.2 mo	31 %
F1 Mexico	Sep 8, 2008	Likely to advance	78 % up	+2.8 mo	61 %
F1 Philippines	Nov 1, 2013	Likely no change	42 % up	–	72 %
F2A Rest of world	Sep 22, 2026	Likely to advance	76 % up	+2.6 mo	50 %
F2A China	Sep 22, 2026	Likely to advance	74 % up	+2.6 mo	58 %
F2A India	Sep 22, 2026	Likely to advance	76 % up	+2.6 mo	50 %
F2A Mexico	Mar 22, 2026	Likely to advance	71 % up	+3.1 mo	53 %
F2A Philippines	Sep 22, 2026	Likely to advance	76 % up	+2.6 mo	53 %
F2B Rest of world	Aug 22, 2019	Likely to advance	70 % up	+2.8 mo	47 %
F2B China	Aug 22, 2019	Likely to advance	71 % up	+2.8 mo	44 %
F2B India	Aug 22, 2019	Likely to advance	70 % up	+2.8 mo	47 %
F2B Mexico	May 15, 2010	Likely no change	40 % up	–	47 %
F2B Philippines	Oct 1, 2013	Likely to advance	55 % up	+30 d	72 %
F3 Rest of world	Oct 22, 2014	Likely to advance	72 % up	+3.1 mo	39 %
F3 China	Oct 22, 2014	Likely to advance	71 % up	+3.1 mo	44 %
F3 India	Oct 22, 2014	Likely to advance	72 % up	+3.1 mo	39 %
F3 Mexico	Jul 1, 2001	Likely to advance	53 % up	+6 d	47 %
F3 Philippines	Jul 22, 2006	Likely to advance	57 % up	+56 d	47 %
F4 Rest of world	Oct 22, 2011	Likely to advance	78 % up	+3.8 mo	53 %
F4 China	Oct 22, 2011	Likely to advance	77 % up	+3.8 mo	53 %
F4 India	Dec 15, 2006	Likely no change	45 % up	–	56 %
F4 Mexico	Apr 22, 2001	Likely no change	49 % up	–	58 %
F4 Philippines	May 15, 2008	Likely to advance	67 % up	+2.1 mo	61 %

Moved in November before = share of November bulletins since 2003 in which the line advanced or went back, blended with the last six bulletins. Hit rate = how often this method was right for that line in the last 36 bulletins. Lines that are current are shown as no change.

How to use a prediction

A projection tells you which way a line leans, not the date it will show. Use it to decide what to prepare: if your priority date is within the typical step of the cut-off and the line is likely to advance, have your medical exam, civil documents and forms ready, because a current date can be gone the next month. If the line carries a retrogression risk and you are already current, file as early in the month as you can.

The pattern behind most of these calls is the fiscal year. New visa numbers arrive on October 1, so October to December bulletins tend to move forward; by July to September the year's numbers are running out, movement slows and the State Department sometimes moves a date back to stop new approvals. A line that has just made a large jump late in the year is the classic candidate for retrogression.

What the numbers cannot see

Demand that has not reached the State Department yet, changes in law or policy, court decisions and the transfer of unused family numbers to employment categories all move dates in ways the past does not show. When a bulletin itself says what to expect in the coming months, trust that over this page.

FAQ

Prediction questions

What are the predictions for the November 2026 Visa Bulletin?

23 of 60 lines are more likely than not to move forward and 0 carry a retrogression risk, judging by what each line has done in November bulletins since 2003 and in the last six months. Most likely to advance: F1 Mexico, F4 Rest of world, F4 China, F2A Rest of world, F2A India.

How are these predictions made?

For each category and country we take every bulletin since 2003 and count how often the line moved forward or backwards in the same calendar month, then weigh that equally with what the line did in the last six bulletins. The typical step is the average monthly advance over the last twelve bulletins. It is statistics from the State Department's own charts, not inside information.

How accurate are they?

Run backwards over the last 36 bulletins – using only the bulletins that existed before each one – the method called the direction right 58 % of the time across all lines (1,173 of 2,017). The table shows the hit rate of each line; lines that move irregularly are the hardest.

When will the November 2026 Visa Bulletin be released?

The State Department normally publishes it around the middle of October, usually between the 8th and the 20th. This page switches to the following month as soon as it is out.

Does the State Department publish its own predictions?

Sometimes: a bulletin's last sections occasionally describe expected movement for the coming months, and an official speaks at immigration lawyers' conferences. Those notes outrank any statistical projection; this page is a guide to what the numbers alone suggest.

Go deeper

Source: U.S. Department of State, Visa Bulletin (travel.state.gov), every monthly bulletin since 2003, parsed by 77.today. A bulletin can be revised after release; the State Department's page is the binding text. Not legal advice.