Winter Forecast 2026–2027: NOAA's Official Outlook, El Niño and What the Almanacs Say

NOAA released its official U.S. Winter Outlook for 2026–27 on October 15, 2026, and the headline is clear: a very strong El Niño is expected to dominate the season, with a warmer-than-average northern tier and a wetter, stormier South and East Coast. This part of our Winter Weather Guide 2026–27 explains what the official winter forecast 2026 actually says region by region, the latest El Niño status from the Climate Prediction Center, why this is not a La Niña winter despite what some older articles suggest, and how the Farmers' Almanac winter 2026–27 forecasts differ from NOAA's. We do not invent snowfall totals; neither does NOAA.

What NOAA's official winter outlook says

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues the official seasonal outlook for meteorological winter, December 2026 through February 2027. According to NOAA's announcement, El Niño will likely bring "warmer-than-average temperatures expected across the northern U.S.; wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the country."

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, explained the reasoning: "a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South." He added that while more rain and snow could ease drought, "too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides."

Temperature outlook by region

Region	NOAA temperature outlook, Dec 2026–Feb 2027
Pacific Northwest, northern California	Warmer than average favored
Northern Rockies, northern Plains	Warmer than average favored
Midwest, Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley	Warmer than average favored (among the highest odds on the map)
Northeast, New England, much of the East	Warmer than average favored
Southeast including Florida (parts)	Near-normal most likely
Much of the Southwest	Equal chances of below, near or above average
Alaska	Warmer than average favored
Hawaii	Equal chances

On the official CPC map, the highest odds for a warmer-than-average winter, in the 50 to 60 percent range, cover the Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and the Northeast and New England, with lower "leaning above" odds across the central states and the South. NOAA notes that near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida, and that much of the Southwest has equal chances. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands also lean warmer than average.

Precipitation and drought outlook

Region	NOAA precipitation outlook, Dec 2026–Feb 2027
Southern tier, from the Southwest and California to the Southeast and Florida	Wetter than average favored
East Coast	Wetter than average favored
Northern Mountain West, northern Rockies	Drier than average favored
Some areas of the Great Lakes	Drier than average favored
Much of Alaska, Hawaii	Drier than average favored
Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley	Equal chances

NOAA's drought outlook, running from October 15, 2026, through January 2027, expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Drought is favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

What about snow? NOAA is explicit that the outlook "does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance." A wetter South can mean heavy snow in the southern Rockies or an ice storm in Texas during a cold spell, and a warmer North can still have big snowstorms. Anyone selling you a precise "2026–27 snow total" for your town is guessing.

El Niño or La Niña? The current ENSO status

Many people are searching for "La Niña winter 2026," a hangover from last winter, when the NWS expected La Niña to persist into the 2025–26 season. For 2026–27 the situation has flipped. In its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of October 8, 2026, the CPC kept an El Niño Advisory in place and wrote that "El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance)."

The numbers behind that statement are unusual. The CPC reported sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, with the key Niño-3.4 index at +2.1°C, Niño-3 at +3.0°C and Niño-1+2 at +3.9°C. It put the chance of a "historic" event, stronger than any El Niño on record since 1950 (a three-month value of +2.5°C or more), at 54% for September–November, 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January. The CPC also cautioned that a strong event raises the chances of typical El Niño impacts but does not guarantee them. The next ENSO discussion is scheduled for November 12, 2026.

So the short answer: winter 2026–27 is an El Niño winter, not a La Niña winter.

What El Niño usually means for a U.S. winter

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific that reshapes atmospheric circulation worldwide. For the United States, NOAA says a strong El Niño tends to shift the jet stream south and east. That typically means:

• More storms across the southern tier, from California and the Southwest through Texas and the Gulf Coast to Florida.
• A milder, often less snowy North, especially the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest, as NOAA's temperature map reflects.
• An active East Coast, where NOAA favors a wetter winter. Whether that falls as rain, snow or ice depends on cold air being in place for each storm.

Two cautions. First, El Niño loads the dice; it does not decide every week of the winter. Arctic outbreaks can still happen, particularly if the polar vortex is disrupted, and that cannot be predicted months ahead. Second, no two El Niño winters are identical; the seasonal outlook already reflects how strong El Niño years have behaved in the past.

How the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac differ from NOAA

Two different almanacs publish winter forecasts every year, and they are often confused.

The Farmers' Almanac (founded in 1818) announced in 2025 that its 2026 edition would be its last. That farewell turned out not to be final: the publication says it now continues under new ownership, its website is active, and the 2027 Farmers' Almanac is its 210th edition. Its 2026–27 winter outlook, credited to its pseudonymous forecaster "Caleb Weatherbee," calls for a winter of "snow, sleet, and surprises": an active, wet storm track across the southern tier, near-normal temperatures with quick cold snaps across the West, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, a tricky rain-snow-ice mix for the Northeast, and a changeable season in the Northwest. It says its method is a proprietary formula based on recurring natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences and historical patterns, now combined with modern tools. The Almanac reports 80–85% accuracy on regional outlooks, while acknowledging in its own FAQ that independent reviews put actual accuracy somewhat lower.

The Old Farmer's Almanac (published since 1792) posted its 2026–27 U.S. winter forecast on October 8, 2026, under the headline "Mostly Mild Winter — Colder, Snowier Spots Ahead!" Its full 12-month forecast is in the 2027 edition. It describes its method as a formula combining solar science, climatology and meteorology with historical weather patterns and large-scale climate signals.

	NOAA Climate Prediction Center	Farmers' Almanac (since 1818)	The Old Farmer's Almanac (since 1792)
Who makes it	Government meteorologists	Forecaster under the pen name Caleb Weatherbee	Almanac editors and forecasters
Method	Dynamical climate models, statistical tools, ENSO and trends; published methodology	Proprietary formula (sunspots, lunar position, tidal pull, historical patterns) plus modern tools; details not published	Formula combining solar science, climatology and meteorology; details not published
Output	Probabilities of above, near or below normal temperature and precipitation	Descriptive regional outlook (storms, cold snaps, snow)	Regional forecast with snowiest periods
Issued	October 15, 2026; updated monthly (next Nov. 19)	Published August 2026, updated online	Online October 8, 2026; full 12-month forecast in the 2027 edition
Snowfall totals	Not forecast (not predictable more than about a week ahead)	Descriptive only	Descriptive only
2026–27 headline	Warmer North, wetter South and East	'Snow, sleet and surprises'; wet, stormy southern tier	'Mostly mild winter — colder, snowier spots ahead'

The main difference is transparency and format. NOAA publishes probabilities from documented models and verifies them; the almanacs publish descriptive forecasts made with methods they do not fully disclose, months before the season. Interestingly, both almanacs' 2026–27 outlooks broadly echo the El Niño pattern (a stormy South and a mild-leaning North), which NOAA had been signaling since El Niño formed. Read them for fun and tradition; plan with NOAA and your local NWS office.

How to read NOAA's outlook map

The CPC maps are easy to misread. They do not show how much warmer or wetter it will be; they show the probability that the three-month average will fall in one of three categories: above normal, near normal or below normal. Each category has a one-in-three chance in an average year, so any shaded area is a place where forecasters see a tilt in the odds.

• Leaning above (33–40% and 40–50%): a modest tilt toward a warmer or wetter season.
• Likely above (50% and higher): a stronger signal. On the 2026–27 temperature map, the darkest shading in the lower 48 is in the 50 to 60 percent range.
• Near normal (gray): the middle category is favored, as in parts of the Southeast this winter.
• Equal chances (white): no category is favored. This does not mean "normal weather"; it means the forecast tools do not give a useful signal there.

Even a 60 percent chance of a warmer-than-average winter leaves a 40 percent chance of a near-normal or colder one. That is why NOAA pairs the outlook with a reminder to keep checking the latest watches and warnings on weather.gov all season.

When the outlook will be updated, and better tools for the actual winter

NOAA updates its three-month outlook monthly; NOAA says the next update will be available on November 19, 2026. Closer to each storm, use shorter-range products:

• CPC 6–10 day, 8–14 day and week 3–4 outlooks show whether a cold or stormy pattern is coming in the next few weeks.
• The NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, operational this winter, shows low-end, expected and high-end snow and ice amounts for individual storms.
• Local NWS watches, warnings and advisories, explained in our part on winter storm warnings vs. watches.

What the 2026–27 outlook means for you

• Northern tier: odds favor a milder winter on average, but do not skip winter preparation. Short Arctic blasts and lake-effect snow remain possible. Know the wind chill chart.
• South and Southwest: expect more storms. In cold spells, that moisture can become snow or freezing rain and sleet in places that rarely see it, and heavy rain on dry ground raises flash flood risk.
• East Coast: a wetter winter is favored, so coastal storms and nor'easters are worth watching; whether they bring rain or snow will be decided storm by storm.
• Everyone: build your kits now with our winter storm preparedness checklists, and if you have school-age kids, read how snow days are decided.

Return to the Winter Weather Guide hub for the full series.

Cover image: NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal temperature outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, issued October 15, 2026. Image: NOAA via noaa.gov, public domain (U.S. government work).